[page 96↓]

8.  Monitoring

8.1. Selection of variables and parameters

Since the project has started in 1998 with experimental project until 2002 in the nucleus phase, the project was still on schedule. All these phases from experimental to industry phase have been completed. However, the project results were lower than expected.
By calculating a feasibility study in chapter four, the project expectations were as shown in table 24.

Table 24: Expected variables of silkworm project at BSA:

No.

Key variables

Larger

size of farm

Middle

size of farm

Small

size of farm

1

Periods per year

10

periods

10

periods

10

periods

2

Box of silkworms/period

3.00

box

2.00

box

1.00

box

3

Harvest of fresh cocoons /box

25.00

kg

25.00

kg

25.00

kg

4

Price of fresh cocoons /kg

2.35

USD

2.35

USD

2.35

USD

Source: calculation

With these conditions the project results for 10 years duration were:

Size of Farm

IRR

NPW

BCR

Larger size of farm

72.66%

3,530.90

1.49

Middle size of farm

54.23%

2,523.47

1.58

Small size of farm

48.38%

1,147.10

1.57

Further criticality values of the project have been calculated. These are shown in table 25.

Table 25: Criticality values of project expectations

No.

Key variables

Larger land

Middle land

Small land

1

Periods per year

5

periods

4

periods

4

periods

2

Box of silkworms/period

1.40

box

0.81

box

0.38

box

3

Harvest of fresh cocoons /box

11.64

kg

10.12

kg

9.61

kg

4

Price of fresh cocoons /kg

1.47

USD

1.34

USD

1.33

USD

Source: calculation

Values in table 25 mean that the value is at minimum value with condition: if the others values of variables stay equal with expected values. As an example: In larger size the farms [page 97↓]value of periods per year is minimum 5 if the value of box of silkworm/period is equal 3 boxes; harvest of fresh cocoons/box equals 25 kg/box and price of fresh cocoons/kg =
USD 2.35. In other words, if the other three values (or one of them) do not differ from expectations values, value of periods must be higher than 5.

In comparison to the value of expected variables (table 24) the values of project variables in reality were lower. Figure 11 shows the value of variables in reality compared with the value of variables in the expectations of the project.

Figure 11: Comparison between reality values with expected values:
variable: Periods per year

 

EofL : Expected value of larger size of farm

 

RofL : Reality value of larger size of farm

 

EofM : Expected value of middle size of farm

 

RofM: Reality value of middle size of farm

 

EofS : Expected value of small size of farm

 

RofS : Reality value of small size of farm


[page 98↓]

2. Box of silkworms/ time period

Figre 12: Comparison between reality values with expected values:
variable: Box of silkworms/period

 

EofL : Expected value of larger size of farm

 

RofL : Reality value of larger size of farm

 

EofM : Expected value of middle size of farm

 

RofM: Reality value of middle size of farm

 

EofS : Expected value of small size of farm

 

RofS : Reality value of small size of farm


[page 99↓]

3. Cocoon production/box

Figure 13: Comparison between reality values with expected values:
variable: Cocoon production/box

 

EofL : Expected value of larger size of farm

 

RofL : Reality value of larger size of farm

 

EofM : Expected value of middle size of farm

 

RofM: Reality value of middle size of farm

 

EofS : Expected value of small size of farm

 

RofS : Reality value of small size of farm


[page 100↓]

4. Price of fresh cocoons /kg

Figure 14: Comparison between reality values with expectation values:
Price of fresh cocoons /kg

 

EofL : Expected value of larger size of farm

 

RofL : Reality value of larger size of farm

 

EofM : Expected value of middle size of farm

 

RofM: Reality value of middle size of farm

 

EofS : Expected value of small size of farm

 

RofS : Reality value of small size of farm

To give both support to the implementation and programs of the project for the next years, and to give feedback into the design of new initiatives, some of variables in the mulberry section and the silkworm section have to be examined.

Mulberry section

Both quantity and quality of mulberry leaves are important as source of nutrition for silkworms. Quantity of mulberry leaves define how many boxes of silkworms and how many cycles could be reared in a year. As variables of quantity the mulberry leaves, have to be chosen as:


[page 101↓]

If the mulberry plants are well cultivated (pruned and fertilised regularly) therefore the mulberry plants are growing well, the frequency of production cycle per year could be high (10 times a year), and if the mulberry plants are growing well, leaves of mulberries are more available to feed silkworms, the total of matured larvae of silkworm boxes per production cycle could be also maximized (3 boxes/ hectare).

The variety of mulberry plants is a variable of quality. There are five different varieties of mulberry in this project. However, the farmers cultivate those which are the most popular varieties: M. alba L(Ma), M. cathayana (Mc) and M. multicaulis (Mm). The varieties of mulberry could present effects to quality of cocoons: total of weight cocoon, size of cocoon, percentage of shell etc.
If the mulberry leaves has high quality of food source available to the larvae, the cocoons will be also in high-quality.
These variables of quality and quantity influence the harvest and thus, the farmers' income. The income can be increased through improvement of quantity and quality of the mulberry plants (food source of silkworm larvae).

Silkworm section

Important results from this section are quantity and quality of cocoons. The quantity and quality of cocoons are influenced both from the mulberry plants and from the side of silkworm cultivation itself. There are a lot of variables that can be examined the out come, e.g. hygiene, condition of worm shed, disease control and feeding frequency etc. To examine these variables we chose only two important variables, namely:

The result of these variables is shown in table 26.


[page 102↓]

Table 26: Values of variables by the monitoring of project BSA from 40 periods
(1998 – 2002)

No.

Variables

Larger

size of farm

Medium

size of farm

Small

size of farm

A.

Mulberry Section

 

1

Frequency of production cycle per year

10

periods

8.5

periods

8

periods

2

Total of ground up silkworm boxes per production cycle

1.03

box

0.47

box

0.40

box

B.

Silkworm Section

 

3

Fresh cocoons production per box

17.32

kg

18.35

kg

16.10

kg

4

Price of fresh cocoons per kg

2.15

USD

2.16

USD

2.06

USD

At the mulberry section, frequency of production cycle per year was, we expected. These values were higher than criticality values of the project (see table 24). On the other hand the total of advance silkworm boxes per production cycle had lower values than those that were designed. This result reflected that mulberry plants are growing still but they did not have many leaves for food. In other words the mulberry plants were not well cultivated. This could have been for reasons that as they were not fertilized or not sufficiently pruned, etc.

Because the mulberry plants were not growing well their leaves had poor quality and also were not sufficient to feed the worms. This condition evoked both lower values of fresh cocoons production per box and also lower values of cocoon quality. The decrease of cocoon quality can be characterised with the price of fresh cocoons that had been lower than the expected price at USD 2.35. Apart from mulberry leaves the lower price could be caused by the other factors: e.g. feeding frequency, hygiene of worm shed, diseases, etc.

To tackle above mentioned problems some additional management activities with additional costs of production are required, e.g. supplement of fertilizers, of hygiene and of management of diseases, repairing on rearing sheds to provide better environmental condition, etc.


[page 103↓]

8.2.  Variance analyses and the practice of learning from doing

In order to develop a strategic plan and to increase the cocoon yield it is important to evaluate the effect of the food source that the larvae are eating and the optimum frequency of feeding.

Scientific Experiments

To establish the effects that mulberry varieties and feeding frequency have on cocoon yield, two experiments were undertaken. The aims of the experiments were:

These results are important from the yield point of view but nevertheless, a cost benefit analysis of each procedure will determine the most profitable solution under the named circumstances.

Material and Methods

These experiments were undertaken at the silkworm project location at Banyumas Sutera Alam (BSA) in Central Java district in Indonesia during July to August 2003. Three treatments were used in these experiments were three different mulberry varieties, namely: M. alba L (Ma), M. cathayana (Mc)and M. multicaulis (Mm). Also three different feeding frequencies were used namely e.g. larvae fed three times per day (P1), larvae fed four times per day (P2); and larvae fed five times a day (P3). The experiment was replicated 2 times. Each treatment tray contained 200 silkworms. The data obtained from these experiments was analysed using 3 x 3 factorial SAS (version 8.2) GLM Analysis. Also to establish any differences between means a pair wise t-test was carried out. The data collected during these experiments were tabulated in the tables 27, 28 and 29.

Results

Table 27 shows the effect of different mulberry varieties and feeding frequency on the fresh cocoon yield. The analysed data presents that there were statistically significant effects on the fresh cocoon yield. The feeding frequency did not have any adverse effect on the larvae and there occurred no mortality in any of treatments. Feeding treatment and mulberry varieties both showed an overall effect on cocoon weight and shell (quality) of the cocoons.

These experiments showed that overall the cocoon weight and quality of the shell could be increased. The silkworm breeding personnel were paid on the weight and shell quality, [page 104↓]therefore there is scope to increase the income of the silkworm breeding personnel e.g. farmers, if the results of these experiments are adopted by the farmers.

Table 27: General effects of mulberry varieties and feeding frequency on the yield of fresh cocoons

 

Number of cocoon (Nr)

Total of weight of cocoons(g)

Weight of 1 cocoon with pupae (g)

Weight of 1 cocoon without pupae (g)

Shell

(%)

Varieties

0.4538

0.0098**

0.0122*

0.0104**

0.0165*

Feeding Frequency

0.7692

0.0002**

<0.0001**

0.0001**

0.0014**

Varieties x Feeding Frequency

0.3894

0.0077**

0.7183

0.5715

0.6206

Note: * Significant at 5 percent probability level.
* * Significant at 1 percent probability level

Effect of varieties of mulberry on the yield of fresh cocoons

The result of these experiments is shown in table 28.
Data collected from this experiment show interesting and significant differences among the mulberry varieties. From the three varieties of mulberry, M. alba L (Ma) gave a significantly (p<0.05) greater of the weight of the cocoons and quality of the shell. Ma showed higher total weight of cocoons and weight of 1 cocoon with pupae and without pupae compared to the Mc and Mm. Thus, the second best variety is Mm.


[page 105↓]

Table 28: Effect of varieties of mulberry on the yield of fresh cocoons

Varieties of mulberry

Number of cocoon (Nr)

Total of weight of cocoons(g)

Weight of 1 cocoon with pupae (g)

Weight of 1 cocoon without pupae (g)

Shell

(%)

Ma

194.67

330.91a

1.7117a

0.3550a

20.73a

Mc

193.67

325.91b

1.6933ab

0.3367b

19.87b

Mm

195.33

327.61b

1.6733b

0.3400b

20.31ab

Pooled

0.90

0.89

0.0070

0.0035

0.17

In vertical columns, means followed by similar letters are not significantly different (p<0.05)

Effect of feeding frequency on the yield of fresh cocoons

The effect of the feeding frequency is shown in Table 29. According to the analytical results gained from this experiment it is obvious that feeding larvae five times a day (P3) gave a significantly (p<0.05) on total weight of cocoons; weight of the cocoon with pupae and weight of the cocoons without pupae and increased quality of the shell of silk. The second best is feeding the larvae four times a day (P2).

Table 29: Effect of feeding frequency on the yield of fresh cocoons

Feeding

Frequency

Number of cocoon (Nr)

Total of weight cocoons(g)

Weight of 1 cocoon with pupae (g)

Weight of 1 cocoon without pupae (g)

Shell

(%)

P1

194.83

323.22a

1.6500a

0.3233a

19.59a

P2

194.83

328.70b

1.7000b

0.3483b

20.49b

P3

194.00

332.50c

1.7283c

0.3600c

20.83b

Pooled

0.90

0.89

0.0070

0.0035

0.17

In vertical columns, means followed by similar letters are not significantly different (p<0.05)

In conclusion it can be seen that in these experiments M. alba L. gave the highest yield of cocoon weight compared to the M. cathayana and M. multicaulis. In order to increase the income of the farmer it is advisable that a survey is carried out in farmer’s mulberry planting areas to establish the percentage of the M. alba L. compared to the other two varieties. Due to these results the farmers can adapt and increase the M. alba L plantings compared to the other [page 106↓]two varieties. This may lead to higher cocoon yield in weight and shell of good silk quality. However, other varieties should also be planted in 30% to 40% of the plantation area as a safety precaution in case M. alba L. fails for any reasons.

8.3. Organizational challenge

Besides variables of the mulberry- and silkworm sections, the other important factor that should be monitored is organisation of sericulture cultivate processes. For examples: education and training for the farmers; organisation of young worm transport, and management of farmers.

8.3.1. Education and training for the farmers

For the farmers sericulture was a new activity. Before, farmers did not have any knowledge of sericulture so at the first step they were trained in the Banyumas Sutera Alam project for three days. The training is continued if farmers are ready to cultivate silkworm (six month after planting of mulberry plants). This method is not sufficient for information transfer to farmers. The farmers need even more time to practise and cultivate in their own rearing shed. To give more success BSA supervisors help farmers cultivation for first time and show practise methods to the farmers in their own fields. It was also difficult because the number of participants (farmers) rose in comparison to the availability of supervisors.

8.3.2. Organisation of early instar of silkworm transportation

The distribution of young silkworm to the farmers should be done carefully and at the right time. The third instar silkworms which have to be distributed are in the phase of moulting to the 4th instar. At the time when they finish their moulting, they should have fresh mulberry leaves for food. So the silkworms should be delivered at the right time and be fed immediately with fresh mulberry leaves. Some problems of distribution were that farmers were not ready to immediately pick up silkworms from the leader of their group or someone from Banyumas Sutera Alam who is delivering silkworms, because time of delivery was not fixed in exact hour unit. For one reason, the limitation of transport for delivery and long distance from one farmer to the other.

To solve these problems BSA tried to rear early instar of silkworms worms at the place of farmers. The leader or someone of the farmers will be trained how to rear early instar of silkworms. He rears them and distributes them to the single farmers. This method requires [page 107↓]time for training and new investments for the newly hatched silkworm sheds and the of equipment.

8.3.3. Management of sericulture activity of the farmers

The farmers in one location are gathered into single groups. The leader of one group helps the new farmers and discusses about their experiences and problems with the sericulture activity. The meeting schedule is organized by BSA so that the BSA supervisor could be attending that appointed meeting. These methods certainly are effective due to giving information by supervisors from BSA and are consulted for problems from the group with single questions. The meeting should be held at least every month. If the meetings are regular, the problems of managing diseases of mulberry cultivation and silkworm rearing can be detected early.


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