Quantitative Estimation from Multiple Cues:  Test and Application of a New Cognitive Model Bettina von Helversen Introduction1 The Traditional Approach to Estimations: Social Judgment Theory2The Exemplar-Based Approach to Estimation 3Heuristic Approach to EstimationsA New Cognitive Theory for Quantitative Estimations from Multiple Cues: The Mapping Model 4Dissertation Outline56Chapter 1:The Mapping Model: A Heuristic for Quantitative Estimation6 Abstract78 The Mapping Model 971#47140#2521#2510Alternative Theories of Estimation1121#25123#471213124#8821#25100#48141516Simulation study 1718Study 119 Method20212223Results242526480#74227Discussion of Study 1 Study 228 Method29Results30313233Discussion of Study 234Study 3 Method3536124#28Results3738603#401Discussion of Study 3Study 439 Method40Results41Discussion of Study 442General Discussion The Success of the Mapping ModelRule-based Estimation43Exemplar-based Estimations4445Simple Heuristics for EstimationComplexity of the Models46Limitations of the Mapping Model47Final Conclusion Appendices484950515253545556256#255713#1358107#28100#2859Chapter 2:Models of Quantitative Estimations: Rule-Based and Exemplar-Based Processes Compared Abstract6061 Models of Estimation62Competing Theories636465124#9921#25100#48666768Methods of Model Selection and Qualitative Tests of Models69Study 170 Method71297#267273747576603#445Results777879332#63780Discussion of Study 181Study 282 Method83Results848586318#62487661#586Discussion of Study 288General Discussion Exemplar Memory: Number of Training Trials and Number of Objects89Knowledge Abstraction 90Conclusion Appendices919293949596Chapter 3:Predicting Sentencing for Low-Level Crimes:A Cognitive Modeling Approach97 Abstract98 Heuristics in Legal Decision Making99Sentencing Decisions by the Prosecution100Models of Sentence Magnitude101141#46The Mapping Model: A Cognitive Theory of Quantitative Estimation 102103485#510Fines versus Incarceration 104Study: Analysis of Trial Records105 Method106107108109110197#2521#27Results111381#361112113604#432114115116560#395Discussion117 Predictors of Sentencing Decisions118Model Comparison119Bayesian ApproachLimitations of the Study120Conclusion and Outlook121Appendices122123124203#2737#2437#2437#2437#24125312#3161#27126173#40233#41251#2919#2337#2519#23448#4244#2419#23127128General Discussion129 Mapping Model Regression Model 130 Exemplar Model 131 QuickEst 132Implications for the Process of Estimation Assumptions of the Mapping Model 133Adaptive Behavior in Quantitative Estimation134Model Selection Methods Generalization Method: Out of Sample Prediction Qualitative Tests135Bayesian Model AveragingLimitations and Extension of the Mapping Model Cue Selection 136Cue Weighting137ExtrapolationContinuous Cue Information138Generalizability and Applications of the Mapping ModelConclusion139ReferencesAcknowledgementsErklärungdeInhaltsverzeichnisHilfe References Albers, W. (2001). Prominence theory as a tool to model boundedly rational decisions. In G. Gigerenzer & R. Selten (Eds.), Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox (pp. 297–317).

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