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SPEPS Preprint

Author(s): Anukal Chiralaksanakul, The University of Texas at Austin
David P. Morton, The University of Texas at Austin
Title: Assessing policy quality in multi-stage stochastic programming
Date of Acceptance: 17.05.2004
Submission Date: 26.01.2004
Series Title: Stochastic Programming E-Print Series
(SPEPS)
Editors: Julie L. Higle; Werner Römisch; Surrajeet Sen
Complete Preprint: pdf (urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10059513)
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Abstract (eng):
Solving a multi-stage stochastic program with a large number of scenarios and a moderate-to-large number of stages can be computationally challenging. We develop two Monte Carlo-based methods that exploit special structures to generate feasible policies. To establish the quality of a given policy, we employ a Monte Carlo-based lower bound (for minimization problems) and use it to construct a confidence interval on the policy's optimality gap. The confidence interval can be formed in a number of ways depending on how the expected solution value of the policy is estimated and combined with the lower-bound estimator. Computational results suggest that a confidence interval formed by a tree-based gap estimator may be an effective method for assessing policy quality. Variance reduction is achieved by using common random numbers in the gap estimator.
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