Browsing by Author "Foltas, Alexander"

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2020-09Diskussionspapier

Business-Cycle Reports and the Efficiency of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany

Foltas, Alexander; Pierdzioch, Christian

We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information ...
2020-09Diskussionspapier

On the Efficiency of German Growth Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis Using Quantile Random Forests

Foltas, Alexander; Pierdzioch, Christian

We use quantile random forests (QRF) to study the efficiency of the growth forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes for the sample period from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we use a large array ...
2020-07Diskussionspapier

Testing Investment Forecast Efficiency with Textual Data

Foltas, Alexander

I use textual data to model German professional macroeconomic forecasters’ information sets and use machine-learning techniques to analyze the efficiency of forecasts. To this end, I extract information from forecast ...