Browsing by Author "Dovern, Jonas"

Now showing items 1-4 of 4

2023-01Diskussionspapier

Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households

Dovern, Jonas

Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic ...
2020-12Diskussionspapier

Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news

Born, Benjamin; Dovern, Jonas; Enders, Zeno

Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find ...
2020-03-13Diskussionspapier

How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey

Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus

Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms ...
2023-01Diskussionspapier

Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations. A Compositional Data Approach

Dovern, Jonas; Glas, Alexander; Kenny, Geoff

We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations ...