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Browsing by Author "Dovern, Jonas"
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2023-01DiskussionspapierEliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households Dovern, JonasRecently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierExpectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news Born, Benjamin; Dovern, Jonas; Enders, ZenoReleases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find ...
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2020-03-13DiskussionspapierHow Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, KlausExpectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierTesting for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations. A Compositional Data Approach Dovern, Jonas; Glas, Alexander; Kenny, GeoffWe propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations ...