Show simple item record

2017-07Diskussionpapier DOI: 10.18452/18132
Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts
dc.contributor.authorDöpke, Jörg
dc.contributor.authorFritsche, Ulrich
dc.contributor.authorWaldhof, Gaby
dc.date.accessioned2017-08-04T12:20:54Z
dc.date.available2017-08-04T12:20:54Z
dc.date.issued2017-07
dc.identifier.issn2510-053X
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/18803
dc.description.abstractThe paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they overwhelmingly rely on methods and theories that have been well-established for a long time, while more recent approaches are relatively unimportant for the practice of business cycle forecasting. DSGE models are mostly used in public institutions. In line with findings in the literature there are tendencies of “leaning towards consensus” (especially for public institutions) and “sticky adjustment of forecasts” with regard to new information. We find little evidence that the behaviour of forecasters has changed fundamentally since the Great Recession but there are signs that forecast errors are evaluated more carefully. Also, a stable relationship between preferred theories and methods and forecast accuracy cannot be established. (150 words)eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.subjectForecast error evaluationeng
dc.subjectquestionnaireeng
dc.subjectsurveyeng
dc.subjectbusiness cycle forecasteng
dc.subjectprofessional forecastereng
dc.subject.ddc330 Wirtschaft
dc.titleTheories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts
dc.typeworkingPaper
dc.subtitleEvidence from a survey among professional forecasters
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/18803-1
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/18132
local.edoc.container-titleExperience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour
local.edoc.pages40
local.edoc.type-nameDiskussionpapier
local.edoc.institutionPhilosophische Fakultät
local.edoc.container-typeseries
local.edoc.container-type-nameSchriftenreihe
local.edoc.container-issue2
local.edoc.container-erstkatid2916406-0

Show simple item record