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2013-10-08Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.18452/18172
Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems
dc.contributor.authorLucht, Wolfgang
dc.contributor.authorOstberg, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorSchaphoff, Sibyll
dc.contributor.authorGerten, Dieter
dc.contributor.editorOstberg, Sebastian
dc.date.accessioned2017-08-17T08:58:13Z
dc.date.available2017-08-17T08:58:13Z
dc.date.issued2013-10-08
dc.identifier.other10.5194/esd-4-347-2013
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/18843
dc.description.abstractGlobally increasing temperatures are likely to have impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems that are difficult to manage. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is fundamental to substantiating the discussion on climate mitigation targets and adaptation planning. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits global warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, our simulations for most climate models agree that up to one-fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate ecosystem change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfil their current emissions reduction pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change, the area potentially at risk of major ecosystem change considering all climate models is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single model.eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Unported
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject.ddc551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie
dc.titleCritical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/18843-4
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/18172
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
local.edoc.container-titleEarth System Dynamics
local.edoc.pages11
local.edoc.anmerkungDie Zweitveröffentlichung der Publikation wurde durch Studierende des Projektseminars "Open Access Publizieren an der HU" im Sommersemester 2017 betreut. Nachgenutzt gemäß den CC-Bestimmungen des Lizenzgebers bzw. einer im Dokument selbst enthaltenen CC-Lizenz.
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionLebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-volume4
local.edoc.container-firstpage347
local.edoc.container-lastpage357
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewed

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