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2020-10Diskussionspapier DOI: 10.18452/22014
German Forecasters’ Narratives – How Informative are German Business Cycle Forecast Reports?
dc.contributor.authorMüller, Karsten
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-06T12:31:47Z
dc.date.available2020-10-06T12:31:47Z
dc.date.issued2020-10none
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/22697
dc.description.abstractBased on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. The paper applies textual analysis to convert qualitative text data into quantitative sentiment indices. First, a sentiment analysis utilizes dictionary methods and text regression methods, using recursive estimation. Next, the paper analyses the different characteristics of sentiments. In a third step, sentiment indices are used to test the efficiency of numerical forecasts. Using 12-month-ahead fixed horizon forecasts, fixed-effects panel regression results suggest some informational content of sentiment indices for growth and inflation forecasts. Finally, a forecasting exercise analyses the predictive power of sentiment indices for GDP growth and inflation. The results suggest weak evidence, at best, for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the sentiment indices.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.subjectTextual analysiseng
dc.subjectsentimenteng
dc.subjecteconomic forecastseng
dc.subjectforecast evaluationeng
dc.subjectGermanyeng
dc.subject.ddc330 Wirtschaftnone
dc.titleGerman Forecasters’ Narratives – How Informative are German Business Cycle Forecast Reports?none
dc.typeworkingPaper
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/22697-1
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/22014
local.edoc.pages47none
local.edoc.type-nameDiskussionspapier
local.edoc.container-typeseries
local.edoc.container-type-nameSchriftenreihe
dc.description.versionNot Reviewednone
dc.identifier.eissn2510-053X
dc.identifier.zdb2916406-0
bua.series.nameWorking Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 – Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviournone
bua.series.issuenumber23
bua.departmentPhilosophische Fakultätnone
bua.series.editorAlexander Nützenadel, Jochen Strebnone

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