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2020-10Diskussionspapier DOI: 10.18452/22093
German Trade Forecasts since 1970 - An Evaluation Using the Panel Dimension
dc.contributor.authorBehrens, Christoph
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-29T13:37:39Z
dc.date.available2020-10-29T13:37:39Z
dc.date.issued2020-10none
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/22755
dc.description.abstractI evaluate German export growth and import growth forecasts published by eight professional forecasters for the years 1971 to 2019. The focus of the evaluation is on the weak and strong efficiency as well as the unbiasedness of the forecasts. To this end, I use a novel panel-data set and estimate fixed-effects models taking into account panel-corrected standard errors. For the full time period, I find that both export and import growth forecasts are weakly but not strongly efficient. Unbiasedness depends on the forecast horizon being analyzed, with longer-term four-quarter-ahead forecasts being biased. I, furthermore, check for a possible change in forecasting behavior after incisive economic events in recent German history. I find that the strong efficiency of the forecasts did not change substantially over time. However, there is a change in forecasting behavior regarding the weak form of efficiency after the financial crisis 2008/2009.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.subjectTrade forecastseng
dc.subjectGerman economic research instituteseng
dc.subjectForecast Efficiencyeng
dc.subjectPanel Dataeng
dc.subject.ddc330 Wirtschaftnone
dc.titleGerman Trade Forecasts since 1970 - An Evaluation Using the Panel Dimensionnone
dc.typeworkingPaper
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/22755-8
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/22093
local.edoc.container-titleWorking Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 – Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviournone
local.edoc.container-creatorAlexander Nützenadel, Jochen Strebnone
local.edoc.pages32none
local.edoc.type-nameDiskussionspapier
local.edoc.institutionPhilosophische Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeseries
local.edoc.container-type-nameSchriftenreihe
local.edoc.container-volume26none
dc.description.versionNot Reviewednone
local.edoc.container-erstkatid2916406-0
dc.identifier.eissn2510-053X

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