Show simple item record

2021-01-21Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.18452/22663
A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
dc.contributor.authorScheuer, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorHaase, Dagmar
dc.contributor.authorHaase, Annegret
dc.contributor.authorWolff, Manuel
dc.contributor.authorWellmann, Thilo
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-31T12:41:51Z
dc.date.available2021-03-31T12:41:51Z
dc.date.issued2021-01-21none
dc.identifier.other10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/23272
dc.description.abstractThe most common approach to assessing natural hazard risk is investigating the willingness to pay in the presence or absence of such risk. In this work, we propose a new, machine-learning-based, indirect approach to the problem, i.e. through residential-choice modelling. Especially in urban environments, exposure and vulnerability are highly dynamic risk components, both being shaped by a complex and continuous reorganization and redistribution of assets within the urban space, including the (re-)location of urban dwellers. By modelling residential-choice behaviour in the city of Leipzig, Germany, we seek to examine how exposure and vulnerabilities are shaped by the residential-location-choice process. The proposed approach reveals hot spots and cold spots of residential choice for distinct socioeconomic groups exhibiting heterogeneous preferences. We discuss the relationship between observed patterns and disaster risk through the lens of exposure and vulnerability, as well as links to urban planning, and explore how the proposed methodology may contribute to predicting future trends in exposure, vulnerability, and risk through this analytical focus. Avenues for future research include the operational strengthening of these linkages for more effective disaster risk management.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc550 Geowissenschaftennone
dc.titleA glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forestnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/23272-0
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/22663
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleNatural hazards and earth system sciencesnone
local.edoc.pages15none
local.edoc.anmerkungThis article was supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin.none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionPhilosophische Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameEuropean Geophysical Societynone
local.edoc.container-publisher-placeKatlenburg-Lindaunone
local.edoc.container-volume21none
local.edoc.container-firstpage203none
local.edoc.container-lastpage217none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
dc.identifier.eissn1684-9981

Show simple item record