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2020-12-21Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a
Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades
dc.contributor.authorWunderling, Nico
dc.contributor.authorGelbrecht, Maximilian
dc.contributor.authorWinkelmann, Ricarda
dc.contributor.authorKurths, Jürgen
dc.contributor.authorDonges, Jonathan
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-25T12:20:19Z
dc.date.available2022-03-25T12:20:19Z
dc.date.issued2020-12-21none
dc.date.updated2022-02-11T17:39:20Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25037
dc.description.abstractTipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and their interactions in a conceptual and easily extendable framework: the Greenland Ice Sheets (GIS) and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the El–Niño Southern Oscillation and the Amazon rainforest. In this nonlinear and multistable system, we perform a basin stability analysis to detect its stable states and their associated Earth system resilience. By combining these two methodologies with a large-scale Monte Carlo approach, we are able to propagate the many uncertainties associated with the critical temperature thresholds and the interaction strengths of the tipping elements. Using this approach, we perform a system-wide and comprehensive robustness analysis with more than 3.5 billion ensemble members. Further, we investigate dynamic regimes where some of the states lose stability and oscillations appear using a newly developed basin bifurcation analysis methodology. Our results reveal that the state of four or five tipped elements has the largest basin volume for large levels of global warming beyond 4 °C above pre-industrial climate conditions, representing a highly undesired state where a majority of the tipping elements reside in the transitioned regime. For lower levels of warming, states including disintegrated ice sheets on west Antarctica and Greenland have higher basin volume than other state configurations. Therefore in our model, we find that the large ice sheets are of particular importance for Earth system resilience. We also detect the emergence of limit cycles for 0.6% of all ensemble members at rare parameter combinations. Such limit cycle oscillations mainly occur between the GIS and AMOC (86%), due to their negative feedback coupling. These limit cycles point to possibly dangerous internal modes of variability in the climate system that could have played a role in paleoclimatic dynamics such as those unfolding during the Pleistocene ice age cycles.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipLeibniz-Gemeinschaft https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001664
dc.description.sponsorshipStudienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004350
dc.description.sponsorshipStordalen Foundation https://doi.org/10.13039/501100012024
dc.description.sponsorshipEarth League https://doi.org/10.13039/501100010065
dc.description.sponsorshipH2020 European Research Council https://doi.org/10.13039/100010663
dc.description.sponsorshipERC-2016-ADG-743080 Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001659 IRTG 1740/TRP 2015/50122-0
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectnonlinear dynamicseng
dc.subjectcomplex systemseng
dc.subjectbasin stabilityeng
dc.subjectclimate tipping elementseng
dc.subjectbifurcationeng
dc.subjectnonlinear processes in the eartheng
dc.subject.ddc530 Physiknone
dc.titleBasin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascadesnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25037-6
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1367-2630/abc98anone
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/24383
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleNew journal of physics : the open-access journal for physicsnone
local.edoc.pages21none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameIOPnone
local.edoc.container-publisher-place[London]none
local.edoc.container-volume22none
local.edoc.container-issue12none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
local.edoc.container-articlenumber123031none
dc.identifier.eissn1367-2630

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