Variability of the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Part I: Linear and nonlinear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation

Abstract

The Tianshan Mountains, with their status as ‘water tower’, receive quantities of precipitation that are among the highest in Central Asia. There are considerable knowledge gaps regarding the understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation over this water‐scarce region. Based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set, this study evaluated the precipitation variations over Tianshan Mountains on different time scales by using Mann‐Kendall (M‐K) test approaches and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The results show that (a) most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years; (b) the annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains has exhibited high‐frequency variations with 3‐ and 6‐year quasi‐periods and low‐frequency variations with 12‐, 27‐year quasi‐periods. On the decadal scale, Tianshan had two dry periods (1950–1962 and 1973–1984) and two wet periods (1962–1972 and 1985–2016) and has experienced a tendency of continuous humidification since 2004; (c) the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains shows a strong seasonality. In total, 63.6% of all precipitation falls in spring and summer. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions. Obvious upward trends of precipitation over Eastern Tianshan were found in all seasons, with Eastern Tianshan entering a humid period as early as 1986. Northern and Central Tianshan experienced a decreasing trend in summer and spring. However, in the other seasons, those two sub‐Tianshan regions have been in humid periods since the 1990s. The precipitation over Western Tianshan showed an upward trend in summer and autumn. The obvious downward trends in spring and winter have led to dry periods in these two seasons from 1997–2014 to 2008–2016, respectively.