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2016-03-23Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.18452/24937
Drivers and patterns of land biosphere carbon balance reversal
dc.contributor.authorMüller, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorStehfest, Elke
dc.contributor.authorvan Minnen, Jelle G
dc.contributor.authorStrengers, Bart
dc.contributor.authorvon Bloh, Werner
dc.contributor.authorBeusen, Arthur
dc.contributor.authorSchaphoff, Sibyll
dc.contributor.authorKram, Tom
dc.contributor.authorLucht, Wolfgang
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-05T13:35:01Z
dc.date.available2022-07-05T13:35:01Z
dc.date.issued2016-03-23none
dc.date.updated2022-01-28T15:34:16Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25618
dc.description.abstractThe carbon balance of the land biosphere is the result of complex interactions between land, atmosphere and oceans, including climatic change, carbon dioxide fertilization and land-use change. While the land biosphere currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, this carbon balance might be reversed under climate and land-use change (‘carbon balance reversal’). A carbon balance reversal would render climate mitigation much more difficult, as net negative emissions would be needed to even stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We investigate the robustness of the land biosphere carbon sink under different socio-economic pathways by systematically varying climate sensitivity, spatial patterns of climate change and resulting land-use changes. For this, we employ a modelling framework designed to account for all relevant feedback mechanisms by coupling the integrated assessment model IMAGE with the process-based dynamic vegetation, hydrology and crop growth model LPJmL. We find that carbon balance reversal can occur under a broad range of forcings and is connected to changes in tree cover and soil carbon mainly in northern latitudes. These changes are largely a consequence of vegetation responses to varying climate and only partially of land-use change and the rate of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change as deduced from different climate models, substantially determine how much pressure in terms of global warming and land-use change the land biosphere will tolerate before the carbon balance is reversed. A reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance can occur as early as 2030, although at very low probability, and should be considered in the design of so-called peak-and-decline strategies.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipBundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0) Attribution 3.0 Unportedger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subjectterrstrial carbon balanceeng
dc.subjectvegetation dynamicseng
dc.subjectclimate sensitivityeng
dc.subjectland-use changeeng
dc.subjectland biosphereeng
dc.subjectmodellingeng
dc.subjectintegrated assessmenteng
dc.subject.ddc570 Biologienone
dc.titleDrivers and patterns of land biosphere carbon balance reversalnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25618-4
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/24937
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.pages11none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-year2016none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044002none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleEnvironmental research lettersnone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume11none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue4none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber044002none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameIOP Publishingnone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceBristolnone
bua.departmentMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone

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