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2021-02-10Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.18452/24941
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
dc.contributor.authorGädeke, Anne
dc.contributor.authorLanger, Moritz
dc.contributor.authorBoike, Julia
dc.contributor.authorBurke, Eleanor
dc.contributor.authorCHANG, Jinfeng
dc.contributor.authorHead, Melissa
dc.contributor.authorReyer, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorSchaphoff, Sibyll
dc.contributor.authorThiery, Wim
dc.contributor.authorThonicke, Kirsten
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-06T09:11:26Z
dc.date.available2022-07-06T09:11:26Z
dc.date.issued2021-02-10none
dc.date.updated2022-01-29T09:23:57Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25623
dc.description.abstractAmplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme
dc.description.sponsorshipBundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
dc.description.sponsorshipHorizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
dc.description.sponsorshipUniscientia Foundation
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectpermafrosteng
dc.subjectclimate changeeng
dc.subjectland surface modelseng
dc.subjectArctic transporteng
dc.subjectwinter roadseng
dc.subjectice roadseng
dc.subjectArctic accessibilityeng
dc.subject.ddc333.7 Landflächen, Naturräume für Freizeit und Erholung, Naturreservate, Energienone
dc.titleClimate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenariosnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25623-0
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/24941
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.pages14none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-year2021none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleEnvironmental research lettersnone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume16none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue2none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber024049none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameIOP Publishingnone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceBristolnone
bua.departmentMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone

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