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2021-10-05Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
dc.contributor.authorBoulange, Julien
dc.contributor.authorHanasaki, Naota
dc.contributor.authorSATOH, Yusuke
dc.contributor.authorYokohata, Tokuta
dc.contributor.authorSHIOGAMA, HIDEO
dc.contributor.authorBurek, Peter
dc.contributor.authorThiery, Wim
dc.contributor.authorGerten, Dieter
dc.contributor.authorMüller Schmied, Hannes
dc.contributor.authorWada, Yoshihide
dc.contributor.authorGosling, Simon
dc.contributor.authorPokhrel, Yadu
dc.contributor.authorWanders, Niko
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-11T09:51:00Z
dc.date.available2022-07-11T09:51:00Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-05none
dc.date.updated2022-01-29T08:00:14Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25671
dc.description.abstractFuture flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient climate in comparison with the equilibrium climate. Therefore, it is unclear whether floods and droughts projected under a transient climate can be systematically substituted for those occurring in an equilibrated climate. Here, by employing a large ensemble of global hydrological models (HMs) forced by global climate models, we assess the validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Differences in flood characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates could be largely ascribed to natural variability, indicating that the floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate the floods expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. By contrast, significant differences in drought intensity between transient and equilibrium climates were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability. Despite the large differences among HMs in representing the low streamflow regime, we found that the drought intensities occurring under a transient climate may not validly represent the intensities in an equally warm equilibrated climate for approximately 6.7% of the global land area.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipEnvironment Research and Technology Development Fund
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology/Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectfloodseng
dc.subjectdroughtseng
dc.subjectclimate changeeng
dc.subjecttransient climateeng
dc.subjectequilibrium climateeng
dc.subject.ddc551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologienone
dc.titleValidity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulationsnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25671-7
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ccnone
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/24987
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleEnvironmental research lettersnone
local.edoc.pages10none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameIOP Publ.none
local.edoc.container-publisher-placeBristolnone
local.edoc.container-volume16none
local.edoc.container-issue10none
local.edoc.container-year2021none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
local.edoc.container-articlenumber104028none
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326

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