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2015-09-16Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094021
Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture
dc.contributor.authorWeindl, Isabelle
dc.contributor.authorLotze-Campen, Hermann
dc.contributor.authorPopp, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorMüller, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorHavlik, Petr
dc.contributor.authorHerrero, Mario
dc.contributor.authorSchmitz, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorRolinski, Susanne
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-12T12:00:49Z
dc.date.available2022-08-12T12:00:49Z
dc.date.issued2015-09-16none
dc.date.updated2022-01-28T14:07:14Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25823
dc.description.abstractLivestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union
dc.description.sponsorshipBMBF
dc.description.sponsorshipCGIAR
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0) Attribution 3.0 Unportedger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subjectlivestockeng
dc.subjectclimate impactseng
dc.subjectland use modelingeng
dc.subjectadaptation costseng
dc.subjectproduction systemseng
dc.subject.ddc630 Landwirtschaft und verwandte Bereichenone
dc.subject.ddc550 Geowissenschaftennone
dc.titleLivestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculturenone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25823-2
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094021none
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/25136
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleEnvironmental research lettersnone
local.edoc.pages12none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionLebenswissenschaftliche Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameIOP Publ.none
local.edoc.container-publisher-placeBristolnone
local.edoc.container-volume10none
local.edoc.container-issue9none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
local.edoc.container-articlenumber094021none
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326

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