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2013-03-26Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046
Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption
dc.contributor.authorFader, Marianela
dc.contributor.authorGerten, Dieter
dc.contributor.authorKrause, Michael
dc.contributor.authorLucht, Wolfgang
dc.contributor.authorCramer, Wolfgang
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-17T12:29:12Z
dc.date.available2022-08-17T12:29:12Z
dc.date.issued2013-03-26none
dc.date.updated2022-01-29T18:27:38Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25854
dc.description.abstractIn our globalizing world, the geographical locations of food production and consumption are becoming increasingly disconnected, which increases reliance on external resources and their trade. We quantified to what extent water and land constraints limit countries' capacities, at present and by 2050, to produce on their own territory the crop products that they currently import from other countries. Scenarios of increased crop productivity and water use, cropland expansion (excluding areas prioritized for other uses) and population change are accounted for. We found that currently 16% of the world population use the opportunities of international trade to cover their demand for agricultural products. Population change may strongly increase the number of people depending on ex situ land and water resources up to about 5.2 billion (51% of world population) in the SRES A2r scenario. International trade will thus have to intensify if population growth is not accompanied by dietary change towards less resource-intensive products, by cropland expansion, or by productivity improvements, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. Up to 1.3 billion people may be at risk of food insecurity in 2050 in present low-income economies (mainly in Africa), if their economic development does not allow them to afford productivity increases, cropland expansion and/or imports from other countries.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0) Attribution 3.0 Unportedger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subjectplanetary boundarieseng
dc.subjectagricultureeng
dc.subjectwater productivityeng
dc.subjectvirtual watereng
dc.subjecttradeeng
dc.subject.ddc577 Ökologienone
dc.titleSpatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumptionnone
dc.typearticle
dc.subtitlequantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraintsnone
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25854-5
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046none
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/25162
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleEnvironmental research lettersnone
local.edoc.pages15none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameIOP Publ.none
local.edoc.container-publisher-placeBristolnone
local.edoc.container-volume8none
local.edoc.container-issue1none
local.edoc.container-year2013none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
local.edoc.container-articlenumber014046none
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326

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