Show simple item record

2020-09-02Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff
An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
dc.contributor.authorCiemer, Catrin
dc.contributor.authorRehm, Lars
dc.contributor.authorKurths, Jürgen
dc.contributor.authorDonner, Reik
dc.contributor.authorWinkelmann, Ricarda
dc.contributor.authorBoers, Niklas
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-17T13:36:29Z
dc.date.available2022-08-17T13:36:29Z
dc.date.issued2020-09-02none
dc.date.updated2022-01-29T07:05:20Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25856
dc.description.abstractDroughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020
dc.description.sponsorshipBelmont Forum/JPI Climate project GOTHAM
dc.description.sponsorshipBundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
dc.description.sponsorshipDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschafthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectcomplex networkseng
dc.subjectdroughtseng
dc.subjectpredictioneng
dc.subjectAmazon rainforesteng
dc.subject.ddc550 Geowissenschaftennone
dc.titleAn early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperaturesnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25856-7
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cffnone
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/25164
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleEnvironmental research lettersnone
local.edoc.pages9none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameIOP Publ.none
local.edoc.container-publisher-placeBristolnone
local.edoc.container-volume15none
local.edoc.container-issue9none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
local.edoc.container-articlenumber094087none
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326

Show simple item record