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2013-09-12Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032
Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems
dc.contributor.authorGerten, Dieter
dc.contributor.authorLucht, Wolfgang
dc.contributor.authorOstberg, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorHeinke, Jens
dc.contributor.authorKowarsch, Martin
dc.contributor.authorKreft, Holger
dc.contributor.authorKundzewicz, Zbigniew
dc.contributor.authorRastgooy, Johann
dc.contributor.authorWarren, Rachel
dc.contributor.authorSchellnhuber, Hans Joachim
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-18T12:43:04Z
dc.date.available2022-08-18T12:43:04Z
dc.date.issued2013-09-12none
dc.date.updated2022-01-29T19:28:43Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25863
dc.description.abstractThis modelling study demonstrates at what level of global mean temperature rise (ΔTg) regions will be exposed to significant decreases of freshwater availability and changes to terrestrial ecosystems. Projections are based on a new, consistent set of 152 climate scenarios (eight ΔTg trajectories reaching 1.5–5 ° C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, each scaled with spatial patterns from 19 general circulation models). The results suggest that already at a ΔTg of 2 ° C and mainly in the subtropics, higher water scarcity would occur in >50% out of the 19 climate scenarios. Substantial biogeochemical and vegetation structural changes would also occur at 2 ° C, but mainly in subpolar and semiarid ecosystems. Other regions would be affected at higher ΔTg levels, with lower intensity or with lower confidence. In total, mean global warming levels of 2 ° C, 3.5 ° C and 5 ° C are simulated to expose an additional 8%, 11% and 13% of the world population to new or aggravated water scarcity, respectively, with >50% confidence (while ∼1.3 billion people already live in water-scarce regions). Concurrently, substantial habitat transformations would occur in biogeographic regions that contain 1% (in zones affected at 2 ° C), 10% (3.5 ° C) and 74% (5 ° C) of present endemism-weighted vascular plant species, respectively. The results suggest nonlinear growth of impacts along with ΔTg and highlight regional disparities in impact magnitudes and critical ΔTg levels.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0) Attribution 3.0 Unportedger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subjectclimate change impactseng
dc.subjectwater scarcityeng
dc.subjectwater resourceseng
dc.subjectterrestrial ecosystemseng
dc.subjectimpact functionseng
dc.subject.ddc550 Geowissenschaftennone
dc.titleAsynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystemsnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25863-5
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032none
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/25171
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleEnvironmental research lettersnone
local.edoc.pages12none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameIOP Publ.none
local.edoc.container-publisher-placeBristolnone
local.edoc.container-volume8none
local.edoc.container-issue3none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
local.edoc.container-articlenumber034032none
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326

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