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2022-03-11Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.3390/epidemiologia3010010
Ticks on the Run: A Mathematical Model of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)—Key Factors for Transmission
dc.contributor.authorBhowmick, Suman
dc.contributor.authorKasi, Khushal Khan
dc.contributor.authorGethmann, Jörn
dc.contributor.authorFischer, Susanne
dc.contributor.authorConraths, Franz
dc.contributor.authorSokolov, Igor M.
dc.contributor.authorLentz, Hartmut
dc.contributor.editorDobrovolny, Hana
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-16T10:17:01Z
dc.date.available2022-09-16T10:17:01Z
dc.date.issued2022-03-11none
dc.date.updated2022-09-03T20:50:20Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/26014
dc.description.abstractCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a zoonotic disease caused by the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). Ticks of the genus Hyalomma are the main vectors and represent a reservoir for the virus. CCHF is maintained in nature in an endemic vertebrate-tick-vertebrate cycle. The disease is prevalent in wide geographical areas including Asia, Africa, South-Eastern Europe and the Middle East. It is of great importance for the public health given its occasionally high case/fatality ratio of CCHFV in humans. Climate change and the detection of possible CCHFV vectors in Central Europe suggest that the establishment of the transmission in Central Europe may be possible in future. We have developed a compartment-based nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system to model the disease transmission cycle including blood sucking ticks, livestock and human. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R0 shows that decreasing the tick survival time is an efficient method to control the disease. The model supports us in understanding the influence of different model parameters on the spread of CCHFV. Tick-to-tick transmission through co-feeding and the CCHFV circulation through transstadial and transovarial transmission are important factors to sustain the disease cycle. The proposed model dynamics are calibrated through an empirical multi-country analysis and multidimensional plot reveals that the disease-parameter sets of different countries burdened with CCHF are different. This information may help decision makers to select efficient control strategies.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectCCHFVeng
dc.subjectODEeng
dc.subjecttick borne diseaseeng
dc.subjecttargeted controleng
dc.subjectHyalommaeng
dc.subjectsensitivity analysiseng
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin und Gesundheitnone
dc.titleTicks on the Run: A Mathematical Model of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)—Key Factors for Transmissionnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/26014-2
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/epidemiologia3010010none
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/25319
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleEpidemiologianone
local.edoc.pages19none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.institutionMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameMDPI AGnone
local.edoc.container-publisher-placeBaselnone
local.edoc.container-volume3none
local.edoc.container-issue1none
local.edoc.container-firstpage116none
local.edoc.container-lastpage134none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
dc.identifier.eissn2673-3986

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