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2020-09-02Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.18452/27212
Future urban development exacerbates coastal exposure in the Mediterranean
dc.contributor.authorWolff, Claudia
dc.contributor.authorNikoletopoulos, Theodore
dc.contributor.authorHinkel, Jochen
dc.contributor.authorVafeidis, Athanasios
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-30T12:59:33Z
dc.date.available2023-08-30T12:59:33Z
dc.date.issued2020-09-02none
dc.date.updated2023-05-16T03:06:26Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/27869
dc.description.abstractChanges in the spatial patterns and rate of urban development will be one of the main determinants of future coastal flood risk. Existing spatial projections of urban extent are, however, often available at coarse spatial resolutions, local geographical scales or for short time horizons, which limits their suitability for broad-scale coastal flood impact assessments. Here, we present a new set of spatially explicit projections of urban extent for ten countries in the Mediterranean, consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To model plausible future urban development, we develop an Urban Change Model, which uses input variables such as elevation, population density or road network and an artificial neural network to project urban development on a regional scale. The developed future projections for the five SSPs indicate that accounting for the spatial patterns of urban development can lead to significant differences in the assessment of future coastal urban exposure. The increase in exposure in the Extended Low Elevation Coastal Zone (E-LECZ = area below 20 m of elevation) until 2100 can vary, by up to 104%, depending on the urban development scenario chosen. This finding highlights that accounting for urban development in long-term adaptation planning, e.g. in the form of land-use planning, can be an effective measure for reducing future coastal flood risk on a regional scale.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectEnvironmental scienceseng
dc.subjectNatural hazardseng
dc.subject.ddc550 Geowissenschaftennone
dc.titleFuture urban development exacerbates coastal exposure in the Mediterraneannone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/27869-3
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/27212
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.pages11none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
dc.identifier.eissn2045-2322
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi10.1038/s41598-020-70928-9none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleScientific reportsnone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume10none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue1none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber14420none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameNature Publishing Groupnone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceLondonnone
bua.departmentLebenswissenschaftliche Fakultätnone

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