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2024-02-28Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.18452/28690
A Novel Fusion-Based Methodology for Drought Forecasting
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Huihui
dc.contributor.authorLoaiciga, Hugo
dc.contributor.authorSauter, Tobias
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-16T14:47:10Z
dc.date.available2024-05-16T14:47:10Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-28none
dc.date.updated2024-04-16T09:33:26Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/29302
dc.description.abstractAccurate drought forecasting is necessary for effective agricultural and water resource management and for early risk warning. Various machine learning models have been developed for drought forecasting. This work developed and tested a fusion-based ensemble model, namely, the stacking (ST) model, that integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forecast (RF), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) for drought forecasting. Additionally, the ST model employs the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm to interpret the relationship between variables and forecasting results. Multi-source data that encompass meteorological, vegetation, anthropogenic, landcover, climate teleconnection patterns, and topological characteristics were incorporated in the proposed ST model. The ST model forecasts the one-month lead standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12 month scale. The proposed ST model was applied and tested in the German federal states of Brandenburg and Berlin. The results show that the ST model outperformed the reference persistence model, XGBboost, RF, and LightGBM, achieving an average coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.845 in each month in 2018. The spatiotemporal Moran’s I method indicates that the ST model captures non-stationarity in modeling the statistical association between predictors and the meteorological drought index and outperforms the other three models (i.e., XGBoost, RF, and LightGBM). Global sensitivity analysis indicates that the ST model is influenced by a combination of environmental variables, with the most sensitive being the preceding drought indices. The accuracy and versatility of the ST model indicate that this is a promising approach for forecasting drought and other environmental phenomena.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipEinstein Research Unit “Climate and Water under Change” from the Einstein Foundation Berlin and Berlin University Alliance
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin
dc.rights(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 Internationalger
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectmeteorological droughteng
dc.subjectstacking modeleng
dc.subjectdrought forecastingeng
dc.subjectexplainableeng
dc.subjectmodel sensitivity analysiseng
dc.subject.ddc550 Geowissenschaftennone
dc.titleA Novel Fusion-Based Methodology for Drought Forecastingnone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/29302-3
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/28690
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.pages25none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone
dc.identifier.eissn2072-4292
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi10.3390/rs16050828
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleRemote sensingnone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume16none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue5none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber828none
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameMDPInone
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceBaselnone
bua.departmentMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultätnone

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