A Deeper Insight into the Yield Formation of Winter and Spring Barley in Relation to Weather and Climate Variability

Abstract

This study used descriptive statistical methods to investigate how the yield development of winter and spring barley was affected by annual weather variability within the vegetative, ear formation, anthesis, and grain-filling phases. Meteorological, phenological, and yield data from the agrometeorological field experiment in Berlin-Dahlem (Germany) between 2009 and 2022 were used. The results show that the lower yield variability in winter barley (cv = 18.7%) compared to spring barley (cv = 32.6%) is related to an earlier start and longer duration of relevant phenological phases, so yield formation is slower under generally cooler weather conditions. The significantly higher yield variability in spring barley was mainly the result of adverse weather conditions during ear formation and anthesis. In both phases, high temperatures led to significant yield losses, as has often been the case in recent years. In addition, a pronounced negative climatic water balance during anthesis was also a contributing factor. These meteorological parameters explained 82% of the yield variability in spring barley. New strategies for spring barley production are needed to avoid further yield losses in the future. Rising temperatures due to climate change could probably allow an earlier sowing date so that ear formation and anthesis take place in a generally cooler and wetter period, as shown for 2014.