A Heliocentric Journey into Germany’s Great Depression

Abstract

The paper finds empirical evidence on the ripple effect of sunspots on the interwar German economy. It identifies a sequence of negative shocks to expectations for the 1927 to 1932 period. The artificial economy predicts the 1928-1932 depression and a long boom from 1933 onwards. Overall, a tangible fraction of interwar output volatility is attributed for by sunspots.