Logo of Humboldt-Universität zu BerlinLogo of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
edoc-Server
Open-Access-Publikationsserver der Humboldt-Universität
de|en
Header image: facade of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
View Item 
  • edoc-Server Home
  • Schriftenreihen und Sammelbände
  • Fakultäten und Institute der HU
  • Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
  • Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko
  • View Item
  • edoc-Server Home
  • Schriftenreihen und Sammelbände
  • Fakultäten und Institute der HU
  • Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
  • Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
All of edoc-ServerCommunity & CollectionTitleAuthorSubjectThis CollectionTitleAuthorSubject
PublishLoginRegisterHelp
StatisticsView Usage Statistics
All of edoc-ServerCommunity & CollectionTitleAuthorSubjectThis CollectionTitleAuthorSubject
PublishLoginRegisterHelp
StatisticsView Usage Statistics
View Item 
  • edoc-Server Home
  • Schriftenreihen und Sammelbände
  • Fakultäten und Institute der HU
  • Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
  • Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko
  • View Item
  • edoc-Server Home
  • Schriftenreihen und Sammelbände
  • Fakultäten und Institute der HU
  • Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
  • Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko
  • View Item
2008-12-29Buch DOI: 10.18452/4165
Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation
Blaskowitz, Oliver
Herwartz, Helmut
Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations. Yet, in the presence of serial correlation they are markedly oversized as confirmed in a simulation study. We summarize serial correlation robust test procedures and propose a bootstrap approach. By means of a Monte Carlo study we illustrate the relative merits of the latter. Two empirical applications demonstrate the relevance to account for serial correlation in economic time series when testing for the value of directional forecasts.
Files in this item
Thumbnail
73.pdf — Adobe PDF — 577.8 Kb
MD5: 07b4486b4cd34cd1ba9301a206169d42
Cite
BibTeX
EndNote
RIS
InCopyright
Details
DINI-Zertifikat 2019OpenAIRE validatedORCID Consortium
Imprint Policy Contact Data Privacy Statement
A service of University Library and Computer and Media Service
© Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
 
DOI
10.18452/4165
Permanent URL
https://doi.org/10.18452/4165
HTML
<a href="https://doi.org/10.18452/4165">https://doi.org/10.18452/4165</a>