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2009-10-29Buch DOI: 10.18452/4217
On economic evaluation of directional forecasts
dc.contributor.authorBlaskowitz, Oliver
dc.contributor.authorHerwartz, Helmut
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-16T00:00:50Z
dc.date.available2017-06-16T00:00:50Z
dc.date.created2010-05-26
dc.date.issued2009-10-29
dc.identifier.issn1860-5664
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/4869
dc.description.abstractIt is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision mak- ing process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up{ or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success measures) are properly formu- lated to account for realized signs and realized magnitudes of directional movements. We discuss a general approach to evaluate (directional) forecasts which is simple to implement, robust to outlying or unreasonable forecasts and which provides an economically interpretable loss/success functional framework. As such, the measure of directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion.eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
dc.subjectDirectional forecastseng
dc.subjectforecast evaluationeng
dc.subjectdirectional forecast valueeng
dc.subjecteconomic forecast valueeng
dc.subjectmean squared forecast erroreng
dc.subjectmean absolute forecast erroreng
dc.subject.ddc330 Wirtschaft
dc.titleOn economic evaluation of directional forecasts
dc.typebook
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-100110971
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/4217
local.edoc.container-titleSonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko
local.edoc.pages20
local.edoc.type-nameBuch
local.edoc.container-typeseries
local.edoc.container-type-nameSchriftenreihe
local.edoc.container-volume2009
local.edoc.container-issue52
local.edoc.container-year2009
local.edoc.container-erstkatid2195055-6

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