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2010-07-06Diskussionspapier DOI: 10.18452/4264
Why Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorNautz, Dieter
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-16T00:10:36Z
dc.date.available2017-06-16T00:10:36Z
dc.date.created2010-07-09
dc.date.issued2010-07-06
dc.identifier.issn1860-5664
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/4916
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis.eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.subjectCentral bank communicationeng
dc.subjectInterest rate forecastseng
dc.subjectSurvey expectationseng
dc.subjectPanel random coefficient modeleng
dc.subject.ddc330 Wirtschaft
dc.titleWhy Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?
dc.typeworkingPaper
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-100172618
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/4264
local.edoc.pages25
local.edoc.type-nameDiskussionspapier
local.edoc.container-typeseries
local.edoc.container-type-nameSchriftenreihe
local.edoc.container-year2010
dc.identifier.zdb2195055-6
bua.series.nameSonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko
bua.series.issuenumber2010,36

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