Über die Zukunft wissen wir nichts. Keynes’ Diktum gilt weiterhin, obschon wir vielfältigst prognostizieren. Dabei aber rekurrieren wir systematisch und statistisch auf alte Datenmuster und Erinnerungen. Erfahrungen bilden ...

We study the role of global media during the Greek debt crisis and relate it to the transmission of events on financial actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling ...

Dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt ging es noch nie seit der Wiedervereinigung so gut wie heute. Die nachhaltige Entwicklung seit 2005 ist auf zwei entscheidende Treiber zurückzuführen: die Umverteilung eines beinahe gleichbleibenden ...

Systemic risk quantification in the current literature is concentrated on market-based methods such as CoVaR(Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016)). Although it is easily implemented, the interactions among the variables of ...

With increasing wind power penetration more and more volatile and weather dependent energy is fed into the German electricity system. To manage the risk of windless days and transfer revenue risk from wind turbine owners ...

In this work we present a novel ensemble model for a credit scoring problem. The main idea of the approach is to incorporate separate beta binomial distributions for each of the classes to generate balanced datasets that ...

We implement a repeated version of the Barro-Gordon monetary policy game in the laboratory and ask whether reputation serves as a substitute for commitment, enabling the central bank to achieve the efficient Ramsey equilibrium ...

Why do investors entrust active mutual fund managers with large sums of money while receiving negative excess returns on average? Our explanation is that investors have a coarser information set than fund managers which ...

There are few multicity studies to address the effect of short-term effect of particulate matter air pollution on daily Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) mortality in developing countries, much fewer to further discuss its ...