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Erfahrung und Erinnerung als Konstituenten von Erwartungen im ökonomischen Kontext
Über die Zukunft wissen wir nichts. Keynes’ Diktum gilt weiterhin, obschon wir vielfältigst prognostizieren. Dabei aber rekurrieren wir systematisch und statistisch auf alte Datenmuster und Erinnerungen. Erfahrungen bilden ...
Fictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis
A topic modeling approach
We study the role of global media during the Greek debt crisis and relate it to the transmission of events on financial actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling ...
The persistence of ownership inequality.
Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869–1945
We study the ownership structure of joint-stock firms for the period of 1869 to 1945 based on a unique hand-collected data set. The data covers a selection of 785 general meetings of 276 firms, including details of more ...
Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts
Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters
The paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and ...
Discrimination against Foreigners
The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative Practice
Economists stress the leading role that inclusive institutions play among the various factors that foster a country’s economic growth. In this article, we show that it might be misleading to mistake the codification of a ...
Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany
A regime shift towards increased in inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What ...
Futurama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period
The recognition of the key importance of economic stability after World War I sparked interest in business forecasting on both sides of the Atlantic. This article explores the creation and the rapid international and ...
Does Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings?
The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social Insurance
Imperial chancellor Bismarck’s system of social insurance (with its three pillars health, accident and pension insurance) was an important role model for social security systems across Europe and in the US. How the ...
Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts
A nonparametric multivariate approach
I analyze the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for Germany in a multivariate setting. To this end, I compute, in a first step, multivariate ...