While incomplete models are desirable due to their robustness to misspecification, they cannot be used to conduct full information exercises i.e. counterfactual experiments and predictions. Moreover, the performance of the ...

Counter to the credit channel of monetary transmission, monetary policy tightening induces a rise in lending by two different types of non-bank financial institutions (NBFI): shadow banks and investment funds. A monetary ...

We analyze a novel feedback mechanism between market and funding liquidity that causes self-fulfilling liquidity dry-ups. Financial firms facing funding withdrawals have an incentive to acquire information about their ...

This paper compares the effectiveness of date- and state-based forward guidance issued by the Federal Reserve since mid-2011 accounting for the influence of disagreement within the FOMC. Effectiveness is investigated through ...

We examine optimal managerial compensation and turnover policy in a principal-agent model in which the firm output is serially correlated over time. The model captures a learning-by-doing feature: higher effort by the ...

We analyse a sample of funds and other securities each assigned a total rating score by an unknown expert entity. The scores are based on a number of risk and complexity factors, each assigned a category (factor score) of ...

How does a negative labor demand shock impact individual-level fertility? I analyze this question in the context of the East German fertility decline after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Exploiting differential ...

High-frequency data can provide us with a quantity of informa- tion for forecasting, help to calculate and prevent the future risk based on extremes. This tail behaviour is very often driven by ex- ogenous components and ...

The recognition of the key importance of economic stability after World War I sparked interest in business forecasting on both sides of the Atlantic. This article explores the creation and the rapid international and ...

This paper reviews the performance of the East German economy in the turbulent quarter-century following reunification and draws some conclusions for the reunification of North and South Korea. In this period, the gap in ...