Now showing items 21-30 of 1495
Conditional moment restrictions and the role of density information in estimated structural models
While incomplete models are desirable due to their robustness to misspecification, they cannot be used to conduct full information exercises i.e. counterfactual experiments and predictions. Moreover, the performance of the ...
Implications of Shadow Bank Regulation for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bounds
Counter to the credit channel of monetary transmission, monetary policy tightening induces a rise in lending by two different types of non-bank financial institutions (NBFI): shadow banks and investment funds. A monetary ...
Forward Guidance under Disagreement
Evidence from the Fed's Dot Projections
This paper compares the effectiveness of date- and state-based forward guidance issued by the Federal Reserve since mid-2011 accounting for the influence of disagreement within the FOMC. Effectiveness is investigated through ...
Dynamic Contracting with Long-Term Consequences
Optimal CEO Compensation and Turnover
We examine optimal managerial compensation and turnover policy in a principal-agent model in which the firm output is serially correlated over time. The model captures a learning-by-doing feature: higher effort by the ...
The Impact of a Negative Labor Demand Shock on Fertility
Evidence from the Fall of the Berlin Wall
How does a negative labor demand shock impact individual-level fertility? I analyze this question in the context of the East German fertility decline after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Exploiting differential ...
Dynamic semi-parametric factor model for functional expectiles
High-frequency data can provide us with a quantity of informa- tion for forecasting, help to calculate and prevent the future risk based on extremes. This tail behaviour is very often driven by ex- ogenous components and ...
Futurama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period
The recognition of the key importance of economic stability after World War I sparked interest in business forecasting on both sides of the Atlantic. This article explores the creation and the rapid international and ...
The Economics of German Unification after Twenty-five Years: Lessons for Korea
This paper reviews the performance of the East German economy in the turbulent quarter-century following reunification and draws some conclusions for the reunification of North and South Korea. In this period, the gap in ...