Now showing items 41-50 of 1493
Dynamic credit default swaps curves in a network topology
Systemically important banks are connected and have dynamic dependencies of their default probabilities. An extraction of default factors from cross-sectional credit default swaps (CDS) curves allows to analyze the shape ...
Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts
Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters
The paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and ...
Industry Interdependency Dynamics in a Network Context
This paper contributes to model the industry interconnecting structure in a network context. General predictive model (Rapach et al. 2016) is extended to quantile LASSO regression so as to incorporate tail risks in the ...
The impact of news on US household inflation expectations
Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household in ation expectations reveals that exposure to news on in ation and monetary policy helps to explain in ation expectations. This remains true when ...
Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations
Evidence from German Firms
We assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations. Two features of our data set are key. First, we rely on a Survey of production and price expectations of German firms, that is, expectations ...
Bismarck to no effect: Fertility decline and the introduction of social insurance in Prussia
Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old ...
Discrimination against Foreigners
The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative Practice
Economists stress the leading role that inclusive institutions play among the various factors that foster a country’s economic growth. In this article, we show that it might be misleading to mistake the codification of a ...