The Information Content of Monetary Statistics for the Great Recession

Abstract

Abstract: This paper introduces a Divisia monetary aggregate for Germany and explores its information content for the Great Recession. Divisia money and the corresponding simple sum aggregate are highly correlated in normal times but begin to diverge before the crisis. Out of sample forecast analysis and a conditional forecast exercise show that the predictive content of this divergence for the Great Recession is not only statistically significant, but also economically important.