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2015-08-12Buch DOI: 10.18452/4598
Forecasting the oil price using house prices
dc.contributor.authorSchulz, Rainer
dc.contributor.authorWersing, Martin
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-16T01:18:33Z
dc.date.available2017-06-16T01:18:33Z
dc.date.created2017-01-05
dc.date.issued2015-08-12
dc.date.submitted2015-08-12
dc.identifier.issn1860-5664
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/5250
dc.description.abstractWe show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We explain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House prices aggregate the dispersed knowledge of the future oil price that exists in the city. We obtain similar empirical evidence for Houston, another city dominated by the oil industry. Consistent with our explanation, we find that house prices from economically more diversified areas in the UK and the US do not improve oil price forecasts.eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.subjectoil price forecastingeng
dc.subjecthouse priceseng
dc.subjectknowledge spillovereng
dc.subject.ddc310 Statistik
dc.subject.ddc330 Wirtschaft
dc.titleForecasting the oil price using house prices
dc.typebook
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-100242745
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18452/4598
local.edoc.container-titleSonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko
local.edoc.pages59
local.edoc.type-nameBuch
local.edoc.container-typeseries
local.edoc.container-type-nameSchriftenreihe
local.edoc.container-volume2015
local.edoc.container-issue41
local.edoc.container-year2015
local.edoc.container-erstkatid2195055-6

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