2016-03-21Buch DOI: 10.18452/4627
Calculating Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions using Highest Density Regions
This paper proposes a new non-parametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A Monte Carlo comparison of the HDR bands with existing alternatives shows that the former are competitive with the bootstrap-based Bonferroni and Wald confidence regions. The relative tightness of the HDR bands matched with their good coverage properties makes them attractive for applications. An application to corporate bond spreads for Germany highlights the potential for empirical work.
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Is Part Of Series: Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko - 17, SFB 649 Papers, ISSN:1860-5664