Browsing Institut für Geschichtswissenschaften by Subject "330 Wirtschaft"
Now showing items 21-34 of 34
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2018-05-28DiskussionspapierInflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany A regime shift towards increased in inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What ...
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2020-04DiskussionspapierKeynes, Inflation, and the Public Debt: "How to Pay for the War" as a Policy Prescription for Financial Repression? This paper discusses whether John Maynard Keynes’ "How to Pay for the War" provided prescriptions for the policies of "financial repression" that were implemented in England, and other countries, following World War II. ...
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2019-10-11DiskussionspapierMonetary Policy Announcements and Expectations Evidence from German FirmsWe assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations. Two features of our data set are key. First, we rely on a Survey of production and price expectations of German firms, that is, expectations ...
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2020-09DiskussionspapierOn the Efficiency of German Growth Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis Using Quantile Random Forests We use quantile random forests (QRF) to study the efficiency of the growth forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes for the sample period from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we use a large array ...
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2021-08DiskussionspapierOptimism gone bad? The persistent effects of traumatic experiences on investment decisions Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996-2000 provide an optimal base to address this ...
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2020-03-30DiskussionspapierQuantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierSharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), ...
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2019-10-11DiskussionspapierSovereign Bonds since Waterloo This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) ...
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2020-07DiskussionspapierTesting Investment Forecast Efficiency with Textual Data I use textual data to model German professional macroeconomic forecasters’ information sets and use machine-learning techniques to analyze the efficiency of forecasts. To this end, I extract information from forecast ...
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2018-10-11DiskussionspapierThe persistence of ownership inequality. Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869–1945We study the ownership structure of joint-stock firms for the period of 1869 to 1945 based on a unique hand-collected data set. The data covers a selection of 785 general meetings of 276 firms, including details of more ...
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2020-08DiskussionspapierThe role of information and experience for households’ inflation expectations Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role of information channels and lifetime experience for households’ inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households ...
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2021-04-09DiskussionspapierThe Sound of Silence. On the (In)visibility of Economists in the Media One way for economists to influence economic policy and society as a whole is to shape what Robert Shiller has called “economic narratives”. This, in turn, puts the media in their role as professional storytellers in a ...
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2017-07DiskussionspapierTheories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts Evidence from a survey among professional forecastersThe paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and ...
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2021-04DiskussionspapierTurn, Turn, Turn. A Digital History of German Historiography, 1950-2019 The increasing availability of digital text collections and the corresponding establishment of methods for computer-assisted analysis open up completely new perspectives on historical textual sources. In this paper, we use ...
