Now showing items 1-10 of 36
Futurama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period
The recognition of the key importance of economic stability after World War I sparked interest in business forecasting on both sides of the Atlantic. This article explores the creation and the rapid international and ...
Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts
A nonparametric multivariate approach
I analyze the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for Germany in a multivariate setting. To this end, I compute, in a first step, multivariate ...
Bismarck to no effect: Fertility decline and the introduction of social insurance in Prussia
Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old ...
Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending
Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. ...
Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany
We show how elite capture affects optimal debt repatriations and management of official reserves under capital controls, bridging literature on debt buybacks and secondary markets. The model we provide guides our study of ...
The role of information and experience for households’ inflation expectations
Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role of information channels and lifetime experience for households’ inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households ...
Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques
Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), ...
Business-Cycle Reports and the Efficiency of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany
We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information ...
German Forecasters’ Narratives – How Informative are German Business Cycle Forecast Reports?
Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. ...