RSS 1.0Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 – Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour
Arbeitspapiere des Schwerpunktprogramms 1859 der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft „Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns“ / Working Papers of the German Research Foundation’s Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour”
Published in co-operation with the documentation and publication service of the Humboldt University, Berlin (https://edoc.hu-berlin.de).
ISSN: 2510-053X
Redaktion: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb, Mark Jakob
V.i.S.d.P.: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
SPP 1859 "Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns"
Sitz der Geschäftsführung:
Humboldt-Universität
Friedrichstr. 191-193, 10117 Berlin
Tel: 0049-30-2093-70615, Fax: 0049-30-2093-70644
Web: https://hu.berlin/spp1859
Koordinatoren: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
Assistent der Koordinatoren: Mark Jakob
Recent Submissions
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2020-12DiskussionspapierExpectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierErwartungs(un)sicherheit durch Gerichte. Methoden und Chiffren der Justiz Nicht nur Politik und Gesetzgebung, sondern auch Gerichte greifen in die Spielregeln der Wirtschaft ein und definieren damit die Rahmenbedingungen der Marktakteure mit. Durch ihre Entscheidungen können sie die Erwartungen ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierDiskurs, Narrativ, Sonderweg, Hitler, Turn. Konjunkturen geschichtswissenschaftlicher Begriffe im „Clio Viewer“ Auf Anregung einer (nicht-repräsentativen) Twitter-Umfrage unter Historikerinnen und Historikern möchten wir in diesem Beitrag ein von uns zusammengetragenes Korpus an Aufsätzen aus elf geschichtswissenschaftlichen ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierGerman Trade Forecasts since 1970 - An Evaluation Using the Panel Dimension I evaluate German export growth and import growth forecasts published by eight professional forecasters for the years 1971 to 2019. The focus of the evaluation is on the weak and strong efficiency as well as the unbiasedness ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierForeign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany We show how elite capture affects optimal debt repatriations and management of official reserves under capital controls, bridging literature on debt buybacks and secondary markets. The model we provide guides our study of ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierSharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierGerman Forecasters’ Narratives – How Informative are German Business Cycle Forecast Reports? Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. ...
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2020-09DiskussionspapierBusiness-Cycle Reports and the Efficiency of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information ...
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2020-09DiskussionspapierOn the Efficiency of German Growth Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis Using Quantile Random Forests We use quantile random forests (QRF) to study the efficiency of the growth forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes for the sample period from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we use a large array ...
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2020-08DiskussionspapierThe role of information and experience for households’ inflation expectations Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role of information channels and lifetime experience for households’ inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households ...
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2020-07DiskussionspapierTesting Investment Forecast Efficiency with Textual Data I use textual data to model German professional macroeconomic forecasters’ information sets and use machine-learning techniques to analyze the efficiency of forecasts. To this end, I extract information from forecast ...
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2020-06-09DiskussionspapierCoping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. ...
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2020-05-18DiskussionspapierActive, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior ...
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2020-04DiskussionspapierKeynes, Inflation, and the Public Debt: "How to Pay for the War" as a Policy Prescription for Financial Repression? This paper discusses whether John Maynard Keynes’ "How to Pay for the War" provided prescriptions for the policies of "financial repression" that were implemented in England, and other countries, following World War II. ...
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2020-03-13DiskussionspapierHow Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms ...
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2020-03-30DiskussionspapierQuantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has ...
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2020-04-16DiskussionspapierChina’s Overseas Lending Compared with China’s pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. This paper studies the size, characteristics, and determinants of China’s capital exports building a new database ...
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2019-12-17DiskussionspapierBismarck to no effect: Fertility decline and the introduction of social insurance in Prussia Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old ...
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2019-10-11DiskussionspapierSovereign Bonds since Waterloo This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) ...
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2019-10-11DiskussionspapierMonetary Policy Announcements and Expectations Evidence from German FirmsWe assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations. Two features of our data set are key. First, we rely on a Survey of production and price expectations of German firms, that is, expectations ...
