RSS 1.0Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 – Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour
Arbeitspapiere des Schwerpunktprogramms 1859 der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft „Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns“ / Working Papers of the German Research Foundation’s Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour”
Published in co-operation with the documentation and publication service of the Humboldt University, Berlin (https://edoc.hu-berlin.de).
ISSN: 2510-053X
Redaktion: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb, Mark Jakob
V.i.S.d.P.: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
SPP 1859 "Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns"
Sitz der Geschäftsführung:
Humboldt-Universität
Friedrichstr. 191-193, 10117 Berlin
Tel: 0049-30-2093-70615, Fax: 0049-30-2093-70644
Web: https://hu.berlin/spp1859
Koordinatoren: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
Assistent der Koordinatoren: Mark Jakob
Recent Submissions
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2020-06-09DiskussionspapierCoping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. ...
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2020-05-18DiskussionspapierActive, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior ...
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2020-04DiskussionspapierKeynes, Inflation, and the Public Debt: "How to Pay for the War" as a Policy Prescription for Financial Repression? This paper discusses whether John Maynard Keynes’ "How to Pay for the War" provided prescriptions for the policies of "financial repression" that were implemented in England, and other countries, following World War II. ...
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2020-03-13DiskussionspapierHow Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms ...
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2020-03-30DiskussionspapierQuantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has ...
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2020-04-16DiskussionspapierChina’s Overseas Lending Compared with China’s pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. This paper studies the size, characteristics, and determinants of China’s capital exports building a new database ...
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2019-12-17DiskussionspapierBismarck to no effect: Fertility decline and the introduction of social insurance in Prussia Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old ...
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2019-10-11DiskussionspapierSovereign Bonds since Waterloo This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) ...
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2019-10-11DiskussionspapierMonetary Policy Announcements and Expectations Evidence from German FirmsWe assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations. Two features of our data set are key. First, we rely on a Survey of production and price expectations of German firms, that is, expectations ...
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2019-04-01DiskussionspapierEvaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts A nonparametric multivariate approachI analyze the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for Germany in a multivariate setting. To this end, I compute, in a first step, multivariate ...
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2018-10-11DiskussionspapierThe persistence of ownership inequality. Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869–1945We study the ownership structure of joint-stock firms for the period of 1869 to 1945 based on a unique hand-collected data set. The data covers a selection of 785 general meetings of 276 firms, including details of more ...
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2018-10-11DiskussionspapierDiscrimination against Foreigners The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative PracticeEconomists stress the leading role that inclusive institutions play among the various factors that foster a country’s economic growth. In this article, we show that it might be misleading to mistake the codification of a ...
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2018-05-28DiskussionspapierInflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany A regime shift towards increased in inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What ...
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2018-03-22DiskussionspapierErfahrung und Erinnerung als Konstituenten von Erwartungen im ökonomischen Kontext Über die Zukunft wissen wir nichts. Keynes’ Diktum gilt weiterhin, obschon wir vielfältigst prognostizieren. Dabei aber rekurrieren wir systematisch und statistisch auf alte Datenmuster und Erinnerungen. Erfahrungen bilden ...
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2018-03-22DiskussionspapierFictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis A topic modeling approachWe study the role of global media during the Greek debt crisis and relate it to the transmission of events on financial actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling ...
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2018-01-11DiskussionspapierFuturama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period The recognition of the key importance of economic stability after World War I sparked interest in business forecasting on both sides of the Atlantic. This article explores the creation and the rapid international and ...
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2017-07DiskussionspapierTheories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts Evidence from a survey among professional forecastersThe paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and ...
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2016-09-14DiskussionspapierDoes Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings? The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social InsuranceImperial chancellor Bismarck’s system of social insurance (with its three pillars health, accident and pension insurance) was an important role model for social security systems across Europe and in the US. How the ...
