Browsing Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 – Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour by Title
Now showing items 1-20 of 41
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2022-06DiskussionspapierA mirror to the world. Taking the German News Magazine Der Spiegel into a Topic Modeling/Sentiment Perspective The importance of mass media is reflected, among other things, in the fact that their coverage on certain topics – contrary to findings from communication research – is often seen as a reflection of the topics that are ...
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2020-05-18DiskussionspapierActive, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior ...
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2019-12-17DiskussionspapierBismarck to no effect: Fertility decline and the introduction of social insurance in Prussia Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old ...
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2020-09DiskussionspapierBusiness-Cycle Reports and the Efficiency of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information ...
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2023-05-10DiskussionspapierChanging Forecasts - Forecasting Change The US market for savings deposits in econometric models and the market for econometric models among depository institutions, 1960s to 1980sSince the late 1960s, the rising volatility of financial markets in the US has troubled econometricians and bank managers alike. Both professions have found it increasingly difficult to forecast savings deposit flows. This ...
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2020-04-16DiskussionspapierChina’s Overseas Lending Compared with China’s pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. This paper studies the size, characteristics, and determinants of China’s capital exports building a new database ...
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2020-06-09DiskussionspapierCoping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. ...
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2018-10-11DiskussionspapierDiscrimination against Foreigners The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative PracticeEconomists stress the leading role that inclusive institutions play among the various factors that foster a country’s economic growth. In this article, we show that it might be misleading to mistake the codification of a ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierDiskurs, Narrativ, Sonderweg, Hitler, Turn. Konjunkturen geschichtswissenschaftlicher Begriffe im „Clio Viewer“ Auf Anregung einer (nicht-repräsentativen) Twitter-Umfrage unter Historikerinnen und Historikern möchten wir in diesem Beitrag ein von uns zusammengetragenes Korpus an Aufsätzen aus elf geschichtswissenschaftlichen ...
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2016-09-14DiskussionspapierDoes Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings? The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social InsuranceImperial chancellor Bismarck’s system of social insurance (with its three pillars health, accident and pension insurance) was an important role model for social security systems across Europe and in the US. How the ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierEliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic ...
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2018-03-22DiskussionspapierErfahrung und Erinnerung als Konstituenten von Erwartungen im ökonomischen Kontext Über die Zukunft wissen wir nichts. Keynes’ Diktum gilt weiterhin, obschon wir vielfältigst prognostizieren. Dabei aber rekurrieren wir systematisch und statistisch auf alte Datenmuster und Erinnerungen. Erfahrungen bilden ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierErwartungs(un)sicherheit durch Gerichte. Methoden und Chiffren der Justiz Nicht nur Politik und Gesetzgebung, sondern auch Gerichte greifen in die Spielregeln der Wirtschaft ein und definieren damit die Rahmenbedingungen der Marktakteure mit. Durch ihre Entscheidungen können sie die Erwartungen ...
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2019-04-01DiskussionspapierEvaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts A nonparametric multivariate approachI analyze the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for Germany in a multivariate setting. To this end, I compute, in a first step, multivariate ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierExpectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierExperience Effects in Economics Lessons from Past and Current Crises
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2018-03-22DiskussionspapierFictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis A topic modeling approachWe study the role of global media during the Greek debt crisis and relate it to the transmission of events on financial actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierForeign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany We show how elite capture affects optimal debt repatriations and management of official reserves under capital controls, bridging literature on debt buybacks and secondary markets. The model we provide guides our study of ...
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2018-01-11DiskussionspapierFuturama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period The recognition of the key importance of economic stability after World War I sparked interest in business forecasting on both sides of the Atlantic. This article explores the creation and the rapid international and ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierGerman Forecasters’ Narratives – How Informative are German Business Cycle Forecast Reports? Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. ...
