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Futurama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period
The recognition of the key importance of economic stability after World War I sparked interest in business forecasting on both sides of the Atlantic. This article explores the creation and the rapid international and ...
Does Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings?
The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social Insurance
Imperial chancellor Bismarck’s system of social insurance (with its three pillars health, accident and pension insurance) was an important role model for social security systems across Europe and in the US. How the ...
The German Inflation Trauma
Weimar’s policy lessons between persistence and reconstruction
The notion of a nation-specific inflation trauma among the German population is ubiquitous in the public debate in Germany and beyond. Because of its experience with hyperinflation in 1923, the German population fears ...
Changing Forecasts - Forecasting Change
The US market for savings deposits in econometric models and the market for econometric models among depository institutions, 1960s to 1980s
Since the late 1960s, the rising volatility of financial markets in the US has troubled econometricians and bank managers alike. Both professions have found it increasingly difficult to forecast savings deposit flows. This ...