Now showing items 31-40 of 41
On the Efficiency of German Growth Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis Using Quantile Random Forests
We use quantile random forests (QRF) to study the efficiency of the growth forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes for the sample period from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we use a large array ...
Heterogeneous Savers and their Inflation Expectation during German Industrialization: Social class, Wealth, and Gender
Using microeconomic data on 2,500 savers of the savings bank Ludwigsburg, we study individual savings behavior in 19th century-Germany. We show that wealthy savers responded to an increase in the expected inflation rate ...
A mirror to the world. Taking the German News Magazine Der Spiegel into a Topic Modeling/Sentiment Perspective
The importance of mass media is reflected, among other things, in the fact that their coverage on certain topics – contrary to findings from communication research – is often seen as a reflection of the topics that are ...
Identity, Instability, and Investors. An Empirical Investigation of the Home Bias
In this paper, we present novel data from the German-speaking area on 13,422 venture capital investments between 1999 and 2019, and document a novel and yet unexplained contributor to investors’ home bias. We propose a new ...
Risk Management, Expectations and Global Finance: The Case of Deutsche Bank 1970-1990
What impact do past experiences have on the expectation formation of banks? This article analyses the risk management of Germany’s largest bank during the 1970 and 1980s. In this period, financial deregulation and globalization ...
Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations. A Compositional Data Approach
We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations ...
Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households
Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic ...
The German Inflation Trauma
Weimar’s policy lessons between persistence and reconstruction
The notion of a nation-specific inflation trauma among the German population is ubiquitous in the public debate in Germany and beyond. Because of its experience with hyperinflation in 1923, the German population fears ...