RSS 1.0Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 – Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour
Arbeitspapiere des Schwerpunktprogramms 1859 der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft „Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns“ / Working Papers of the German Research Foundation’s Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour”
Published in co-operation with the documentation and publication service of the Humboldt University, Berlin (https://edoc.hu-berlin.de).
ISSN: 2510-053X
Redaktion: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb, Mark Jakob
V.i.S.d.P.: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
SPP 1859 "Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns"
Sitz der Geschäftsführung:
Humboldt-Universität
Friedrichstr. 191-193, 10117 Berlin
Tel: 0049-30-2093-70615, Fax: 0049-30-2093-70644
Web: https://hu.berlin/spp1859
Koordinatoren: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
Assistent der Koordinatoren: Mark Jakob
Recent Submissions
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2023-05-10DiskussionspapierChanging Forecasts - Forecasting Change The US market for savings deposits in econometric models and the market for econometric models among depository institutions, 1960s to 1980sSince the late 1960s, the rising volatility of financial markets in the US has troubled econometricians and bank managers alike. Both professions have found it increasingly difficult to forecast savings deposit flows. This ...
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2023-04-12DiskussionspapierThe German Inflation Trauma Weimar’s policy lessons between persistence and reconstructionThe notion of a nation-specific inflation trauma among the German population is ubiquitous in the public debate in Germany and beyond. Because of its experience with hyperinflation in 1923, the German population fears ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierTesting for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations. A Compositional Data Approach We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierEliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierExperience Effects in Economics Lessons from Past and Current Crises
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2022-11DiskussionspapierRisk Management, Expectations and Global Finance: The Case of Deutsche Bank 1970-1990 What impact do past experiences have on the expectation formation of banks? This article analyses the risk management of Germany’s largest bank during the 1970 and 1980s. In this period, financial deregulation and globalization ...
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2022-10DiskussionspapierIdentity, Instability, and Investors. An Empirical Investigation of the Home Bias In this paper, we present novel data from the German-speaking area on 13,422 venture capital investments between 1999 and 2019, and document a novel and yet unexplained contributor to investors’ home bias. We propose a new ...
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2022-06DiskussionspapierA mirror to the world. Taking the German News Magazine Der Spiegel into a Topic Modeling/Sentiment Perspective The importance of mass media is reflected, among other things, in the fact that their coverage on certain topics – contrary to findings from communication research – is often seen as a reflection of the topics that are ...
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2022-03DiskussionspapierHeterogeneous Savers and their Inflation Expectation during German Industrialization: Social class, Wealth, and Gender Using microeconomic data on 2,500 savers of the savings bank Ludwigsburg, we study individual savings behavior in 19th century-Germany. We show that wealthy savers responded to an increase in the expected inflation rate ...
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2021-08DiskussionspapierOptimism gone bad? The persistent effects of traumatic experiences on investment decisions Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996-2000 provide an optimal base to address this ...
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2021-04DiskussionspapierTurn, Turn, Turn. A Digital History of German Historiography, 1950-2019 The increasing availability of digital text collections and the corresponding establishment of methods for computer-assisted analysis open up completely new perspectives on historical textual sources. In this paper, we use ...
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2021-04-09DiskussionspapierThe Sound of Silence. On the (In)visibility of Economists in the Media One way for economists to influence economic policy and society as a whole is to shape what Robert Shiller has called “economic narratives”. This, in turn, puts the media in their role as professional storytellers in a ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierExpectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierErwartungs(un)sicherheit durch Gerichte. Methoden und Chiffren der Justiz Nicht nur Politik und Gesetzgebung, sondern auch Gerichte greifen in die Spielregeln der Wirtschaft ein und definieren damit die Rahmenbedingungen der Marktakteure mit. Durch ihre Entscheidungen können sie die Erwartungen ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierDiskurs, Narrativ, Sonderweg, Hitler, Turn. Konjunkturen geschichtswissenschaftlicher Begriffe im „Clio Viewer“ Auf Anregung einer (nicht-repräsentativen) Twitter-Umfrage unter Historikerinnen und Historikern möchten wir in diesem Beitrag ein von uns zusammengetragenes Korpus an Aufsätzen aus elf geschichtswissenschaftlichen ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierGerman Trade Forecasts since 1970 - An Evaluation Using the Panel Dimension I evaluate German export growth and import growth forecasts published by eight professional forecasters for the years 1971 to 2019. The focus of the evaluation is on the weak and strong efficiency as well as the unbiasedness ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierForeign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany We show how elite capture affects optimal debt repatriations and management of official reserves under capital controls, bridging literature on debt buybacks and secondary markets. The model we provide guides our study of ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierSharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierGerman Forecasters’ Narratives – How Informative are German Business Cycle Forecast Reports? Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. ...
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2020-09DiskussionspapierBusiness-Cycle Reports and the Efficiency of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information ...
