RSS 1.0Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 – Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour
Arbeitspapiere des Schwerpunktprogramms 1859 der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft „Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns“ / Working Papers of the German Research Foundation’s Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour”
Published in co-operation with the documentation and publication service of the Humboldt University, Berlin (https://edoc.hu-berlin.de).
ISSN: 2510-053X
Redaktion: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb, Mark Jakob
V.i.S.d.P.: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
SPP 1859 "Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns"
Sitz der Geschäftsführung:
Humboldt-Universität
Friedrichstr. 191-193, 10117 Berlin
Tel: 0049-30-2093-70615, Fax: 0049-30-2093-70644
Web: https://hu.berlin/spp1859
Koordinatoren: Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb
Assistent der Koordinatoren: Mark Jakob
Recent Submissions
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2024-08DiskussionspapierThe fate of the passbook: Why it vanished in the US but survived in Germany during the stagflation period (1966–1983) In his article, Sebastian Knake challenges the general assumption that traditional savings accounts in the US disappeared naturally as a result of the combination of interest rate regulation and extraordinarily high market ...
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2024-07DiskussionspapierInefficient forecast narratives: A BERT-based approach I contribute to previous research on the efficient integration of forecasters’ narratives into business cycle forecasts. Using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, I quantify 19,300 ...
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2023-07DiskussionspapierQuantifying Priorities in Business Cycle Reports: Analysis of Recurring Textual Patterns around Peaks and Troughs I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports’ priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research ...
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2023-07DiskussionspapierFirm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro Using firm-level data, we study how firm expectations adjust to news while accounting for a) the heterogeneity of news and b) the heterogeneity of firms. We classify news as either micro or macro, that is, information ...
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2023-06DiskussionspapierOn FIRE, news, and expectations The full-information rational expectations (FIRE) assumption is at the core of modern macroeconomics. We revisit recent evidence which rejects FIRE based on survey data. It relates forecast errors to news at different ...
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2023-05-10DiskussionspapierChanging Forecasts - Forecasting Change Since the late 1960s, the rising volatility of financial markets in the US has troubled econometricians and bank managers alike. Both professions have found it increasingly difficult to forecast savings deposit flows. This ...
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2023-04-12DiskussionspapierThe German Inflation Trauma The notion of a nation-specific inflation trauma among the German population is ubiquitous in the public debate in Germany and beyond. Because of its experience with hyperinflation in 1923, the German population fears ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierTesting for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations. A Compositional Data Approach We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierEliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic ...
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2023-01DiskussionspapierExperience Effects in Economics
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2022-11DiskussionspapierRisk Management, Expectations and Global Finance: The Case of Deutsche Bank 1970-1990 What impact do past experiences have on the expectation formation of banks? This article analyses the risk management of Germany’s largest bank during the 1970 and 1980s. In this period, financial deregulation and globalization ...
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2022-10DiskussionspapierIdentity, Instability, and Investors. An Empirical Investigation of the Home Bias In this paper, we present novel data from the German-speaking area on 13,422 venture capital investments between 1999 and 2019, and document a novel and yet unexplained contributor to investors’ home bias. We propose a new ...
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2022-06DiskussionspapierA mirror to the world. Taking the German News Magazine Der Spiegel into a Topic Modeling/Sentiment Perspective The importance of mass media is reflected, among other things, in the fact that their coverage on certain topics – contrary to findings from communication research – is often seen as a reflection of the topics that are ...
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2022-03DiskussionspapierHeterogeneous Savers and their Inflation Expectation during German Industrialization: Social class, Wealth, and Gender Using microeconomic data on 2,500 savers of the savings bank Ludwigsburg, we study individual savings behavior in 19th century-Germany. We show that wealthy savers responded to an increase in the expected inflation rate ...
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2021-08DiskussionspapierOptimism gone bad? The persistent effects of traumatic experiences on investment decisions Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996-2000 provide an optimal base to address this ...
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2021-04DiskussionspapierTurn, Turn, Turn. A Digital History of German Historiography, 1950-2019 The increasing availability of digital text collections and the corresponding establishment of methods for computer-assisted analysis open up completely new perspectives on historical textual sources. In this paper, we use ...
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2021-04-09DiskussionspapierThe Sound of Silence. On the (In)visibility of Economists in the Media One way for economists to influence economic policy and society as a whole is to shape what Robert Shiller has called “economic narratives”. This, in turn, puts the media in their role as professional storytellers in a ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierExpectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find ...
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2020-12DiskussionspapierErwartungs(un)sicherheit durch Gerichte. Methoden und Chiffren der Justiz Nicht nur Politik und Gesetzgebung, sondern auch Gerichte greifen in die Spielregeln der Wirtschaft ein und definieren damit die Rahmenbedingungen der Marktakteure mit. Durch ihre Entscheidungen können sie die Erwartungen ...
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2020-10DiskussionspapierDiskurs, Narrativ, Sonderweg, Hitler, Turn. Konjunkturen geschichtswissenschaftlicher Begriffe im „Clio Viewer“ Auf Anregung einer (nicht-repräsentativen) Twitter-Umfrage unter Historikerinnen und Historikern möchten wir in diesem Beitrag ein von uns zusammengetragenes Korpus an Aufsätzen aus elf geschichtswissenschaftlichen ...
